Gas emissions up, statistics down

Public awareness of the important challenge of climate change has really soared over the last year (2006).
A recent survey commissioned by CSIRO found that 90% of Queenslanders rate climate change "as an issue vital to the nation's future".
Many people would have breathed a sigh of relief last week when federal environment minister, Malcolm Turnbull, proudly announced that Australia’s 2005 greenhouse gas emissions were up just 2% on 1990 levels. Notwithstanding that scientists are calling for 60-80% reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, this seemed like a reasonable result.

But as in so many accounting matters, the devil is in the detail.
In producing the figures the Australian Greenhouse Office tries to account for every tonne of coal and barrel of oil burned, every tree cut down or planted, every farting cow and every bush fire or burnoff. It is complex and will invariably involve some guesswork.

In fact Australia’s total greenhouse emissions from energy use (electricity generation and transport fuel) increased by 36% between 1990 and 2005. This is basically in line with economic growth. So how did this massive increase get reduced?
The most significant reductions were in landclearing, particularly in western NSW and Queensland. Previously burning and rotting cleared vegetation was a significant contributor to emissions. The figures show a 58% reduction since 1990 but the figures since 2002 are listed as “interim”.

Restrictions on old growth forestry have lead to a boom in plantations, helped by attractive tax incentives.
But broadscale landclearing has now mostly ceased and it is debatable whether the rate of new forestry planting will match the boom of the last decade. So these offsets won’t increase anywhere near as quickly as our emissions from energy use.
Both the government and opposition are pinning their hopes on “clean coal” but, even if this works, it is won’t deliver any emissions savings before 2020. And then there is the nuclear dream or nightmare, depending on your viewpoint, but again, no emissions saving until at least 2025.

By 2020, in the absence of a radical efficiency program and rapid uptake of renewable energy, our energy use emissions will have risen to about 80% above 1990 levels. Mr. Turnbull’s plan for the use of energy efficient light bulbs may knock 1% off this.
So under current policies the net increase by 2020 will be at least 25%. Clearly the government’s claim to be “on track” to reduce emissions is pure spin.

This was originally published in the Fraser Coast Chronicle on 8 May 2007.