We need clear population targets

Hervey Bay boasts one of Australia’s highest population growth rates of almost 5% per year. That’s 2,700 extra people every year. If the average growth rate since 1990 continues Hervey Bay will exceed 300,000 people by 2050.
Much of Hervey Bay’s growth is due to migration from the southern states. Queensland continues to grow by about 80,000 people per year including 30,000 interstate migration and 20,000 overseas migration. Queensland will almost double its population to about 7 million by 2050.

Meanwhile, Australia’s population will reach 21 million next month and continues to grow at about 160,000 per year, mostly due to immigration of 120,000.
Many people are concerned about these trends, especially in a place such as Hervey Bay where population growth is shaping an altogether different kind of city than the one that existed in the past.

A growing population drives a booming economy, especially plenty of residential development. But despite greater efficiencies, a growing population will use more resources such as water and energy, while natural habitats and green space will come under increasing pressure.

Some people favour a population cap but this is difficult to implement. It is a blunt policy instrument that would likely lead to a collapse of the development sector and a sudden rise in property values.
On the other hand, a market slow down or resource constraints could have unexpected impacts on continued growth. With a significant proportion of Hervey Bay’s employment in development and construction, such a slowdown could lead to worrying levels of unemployment.

I have argued for some time that Hervey Bay, and indeed Queensland and Australia, need clear population targets and policies to achieve them. A population policy is not a population prediction, as we have now, but a considered population growth pattern that will level out to a stable population by mid century.
None of our three levels of government have clear population policies but they all appear to favour unsustainable levels of growth. Hervey Bay and Queensland both actively encourage people to come. Nationally we have relatively high immigration levels and the misguided baby bonus.

Population is probably the most fundamental determinant of our future prosperity and the nature of our society. Some think that a population of 100,000 for Hervey Bay is enough but in the absence of appropriate policies or a market slowdown we’ll sail past that target by 2020. Population is a debate that Hervey Bay needs to have.

This was originally published in the Fraser Coast Chronicle on 19 June 2007.